Alcorn St.

Conference:	SWAC
Expected RPI:	348.0
Current RPI:	348
Expected SOS:	347
Current SOS:	347
Current Record:	7-21
Expected Record:	7-21
Current Conf Record:	7-12
Expected Conf Record:	7-12
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	0-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	7-13
Current OOC Record:	0-9
Expected OOC Record:	0-9
Expected OOC RPI:	338
Expected OOC SOS:	163

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
7-21	348.0	100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Alcorn St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Location	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-10	LSU (95.0)	SEC	A	99-59	L	0%
11-12	Creighton (44.0)	BE	A	109-72	L	0%
11-13	Northern Iowa (138.0)	MVC	A	73-45	L	0%
11-17	Baylor (68.0)	B12	A	78-61	L	0%
11-19	Central Arkansas (223.0)	Slnd	A	102-76	L	0%
11-22	Yale (183.0)	Ivy	H	73-87	L	0%
11-29	Tulane (175.0)	Amer	A	81-65	L	0%
12-10	Iowa St. (144.0)	B12	A	78-58	L	0%
12-22	Vanderbilt (132.0)	SEC	A	92-51	L	0%
1-1	Prairie View A&M (247.0)	SWAC	A	76-64	L	0%
1-3	Texas Southern (222.0)	SWAC	A	85-70	L	0%
1-6	Jackson St. (330.0)	SWAC	H	55-60	L	0%
1-8	Grambling St. (249.0)	SWAC	H	61-72	L	0%
1-13	Mississippi Valley St. (349.0)	SWAC	A	63-77	W	100%
1-15	Arkansas Pine Bluff (307.0)	SWAC	A	71-59	L	0%
1-20	Alabama A&M (350.0)	SWAC	H	68-52	W	100%
1-22	Alabama St. (333.0)	SWAC	H	81-64	W	100%
1-27	Southern (315.0)	SWAC	A	61-48	L	0%
2-3	Jackson St. (330.0)	SWAC	A	60-57	L	0%
2-5	Grambling St. (249.0)	SWAC	A	81-72	L	0%
2-10	Mississippi Valley St. (349.0)	SWAC	H	94-90	W	100%
2-12	Arkansas Pine Bluff (307.0)	SWAC	H	84-52	W	100%
2-17	Alabama A&M (350.0)	SWAC	A	60-80	W	100%
2-19	Alabama St. (333.0)	SWAC	A	82-62	L	0%
2-24	Southern (315.0)	SWAC	H	89-85	W	100%
3-1	Prairie View A&M (247.0)	SWAC	H	69-79	L	0%
3-3	Texas Southern (222.0)	SWAC	H	71-78	L	0%
3-6	Prairie View A&M (247.0)	SWAC	A	87-71	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Alcorn St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Alcorn St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Alcorn St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Alcorn St.	SWAC	26.41	26.41	25.89	25.89	-12.73	-12.73
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	6.31	6.31	40.00	40.00	-1.26	-1.26
Texas Southern	SWAC	4.75	4.75	40.62	40.62	-0.89	-0.89
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	4.70	4.70	39.39	39.39	-1.00	-1.00
Southern	SWAC	4.69	4.69	41.38	41.38	-0.81	-0.81
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	4.58	4.58	13.33	13.33	-3.36	-3.36
Jackson St.	SWAC	4.57	4.57	28.57	28.57	-1.96	-1.96
Alabama St.	SWAC	4.57	4.57	24.14	24.14	-2.37	-2.37
Alabama A&M	SWAC	4.52	4.52	10.34	10.34	-3.59	-3.59
Grambling St.	SWAC	4.52	4.52	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Baylor	B12	2.01	2.01	53.33	53.33	0.13	0.13
Iowa St.	B12	1.87	1.87	40.00	40.00	-0.37	-0.37
Creighton	BE	1.84	1.84	63.33	63.33	0.49	0.49
Tulane	Amer	1.84	1.84	43.33	43.33	-0.25	-0.25
Vanderbilt	SEC	1.84	1.84	35.48	35.48	-0.54	-0.54
LSU	SEC	1.84	1.84	53.33	53.33	0.12	0.12
Central Arkansas	Slnd	1.81	1.81	48.39	48.39	-0.06	-0.06
Northern Iowa	MVC	1.81	1.81	44.83	44.83	-0.19	-0.19
Yale	Ivy	1.81	1.81	48.28	48.28	-0.06	-0.06
TCU	B12	0.23	0.23	65.62	65.62	0.07	0.07
Oregon	P12	0.22	0.22	64.71	64.71	0.06	0.06
Iowa	B10	0.20	0.20	42.42	42.42	-0.03	-0.03
Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	0.20	0.20	63.33	63.33	0.05	0.05
Tulsa	Amer	0.20	0.20	61.29	61.29	0.04	0.04
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.17	0.17	65.62	65.62	0.05	0.05
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.17	0.17	57.58	57.58	0.03	0.03
Kansas	B12	0.17	0.17	79.41	79.41	0.10	0.10
Georgia St.	SB	0.17	0.17	68.75	68.75	0.06	0.06
Houston	Amer	0.17	0.17	78.79	78.79	0.10	0.10
UNLV	MWC	0.17	0.17	60.61	60.61	0.04	0.04
Texas A&M	SEC	0.17	0.17	62.50	62.50	0.04	0.04
Loyola Chicago	MVC	0.15	0.15	84.38	84.38	0.10	0.10
Texas	B12	0.14	0.14	57.58	57.58	0.02	0.02
West Virginia	B12	0.14	0.14	70.59	70.59	0.06	0.06
Alabama	SEC	0.14	0.14	55.88	55.88	0.02	0.02
Kansas St.	B12	0.14	0.14	66.67	66.67	0.05	0.05
Samford	SC	0.14	0.14	26.67	26.67	-0.07	-0.07
Ohio	MAC	0.14	0.14	43.33	43.33	-0.02	-0.02
SMU	Amer	0.14	0.14	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
Cincinnati	Amer	0.14	0.14	88.24	88.24	0.11	0.11
Tennessee Martin	OVC	0.14	0.14	27.59	27.59	-0.06	-0.06
Utah	P12	0.14	0.14	63.33	63.33	0.04	0.04
Hawaii	BW	0.13	0.13	53.57	53.57	0.01	0.01
Louisiana Monroe	SB	0.12	0.12	46.43	46.43	-0.01	-0.01
Southern Illinois	MVC	0.12	0.12	59.38	59.38	0.02	0.02
East Carolina	Amer	0.12	0.12	33.33	33.33	-0.04	-0.04
Louisiana Tech	CUSA	0.12	0.12	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.12	0.12	16.67	16.67	-0.08	-0.08
Missouri St.	MVC	0.12	0.12	53.12	53.12	0.01	0.01
Xavier	BE	0.12	0.12	84.85	84.85	0.08	0.08
Grand Canyon	WAC	0.12	0.12	65.62	65.62	0.04	0.04
DePaul	BE	0.12	0.12	35.48	35.48	-0.03	-0.03
Georgetown	BE	0.12	0.12	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Oklahoma	B12	0.12	0.12	58.06	58.06	0.02	0.02
Texas Tech	B12	0.12	0.12	72.73	72.73	0.05	0.05
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	0.11	0.11	51.72	51.72	0.00	0.00
Florida	SEC	0.11	0.11	62.50	62.50	0.03	0.03
Georgia	SEC	0.11	0.11	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Tennessee	SEC	0.11	0.11	75.76	75.76	0.06	0.06
UAB	CUSA	0.11	0.11	58.06	58.06	0.02	0.02
Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	0.11	0.11	80.00	80.00	0.07	0.07
Toledo	MAC	0.11	0.11	66.67	66.67	0.04	0.04
BYU	WCC	0.11	0.11	70.59	70.59	0.04	0.04
Evansville	MVC	0.09	0.09	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Penn	Ivy	0.09	0.09	74.19	74.19	0.04	0.04
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.09	0.09	40.62	40.62	-0.02	-0.02
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.09	0.09	78.12	78.12	0.05	0.05
Villanova	BE	0.09	0.09	88.24	88.24	0.07	0.07
Marquette	BE	0.09	0.09	59.38	59.38	0.02	0.02
Memphis	Amer	0.09	0.09	61.76	61.76	0.02	0.02
Michigan	B10	0.09	0.09	79.41	79.41	0.05	0.05
Providence	BE	0.09	0.09	61.76	61.76	0.02	0.02
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.09	0.09	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Temple	Amer	0.09	0.09	53.12	53.12	0.01	0.01
UCF	Amer	0.09	0.09	59.38	59.38	0.02	0.02
Arkansas	SEC	0.09	0.09	67.65	67.65	0.03	0.03
Austin Peay	OVC	0.09	0.09	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Missouri	SEC	0.09	0.09	61.29	61.29	0.02	0.02
Seton Hall	BE	0.09	0.09	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
Kentucky	SEC	0.08	0.08	70.59	70.59	0.03	0.03
Nicholls St.	Slnd	0.08	0.08	60.71	60.71	0.02	0.02
Gonzaga	WCC	0.08	0.08	88.24	88.24	0.06	0.06
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	0.08	0.08	31.03	31.03	-0.03	-0.03
New Mexico	MWC	0.08	0.08	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
New Mexico St.	WAC	0.08	0.08	83.33	83.33	0.05	0.05
UC Santa Barbara	BW	0.08	0.08	70.00	70.00	0.03	0.03
North Dakota	BSky	0.08	0.08	33.33	33.33	-0.03	-0.03
Ball St.	MAC	0.06	0.06	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.06	0.06	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Bradley	MVC	0.06	0.06	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Brown	Ivy	0.06	0.06	38.46	38.46	-0.01	-0.01
Central Michigan	MAC	0.06	0.06	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Columbia	Ivy	0.06	0.06	26.92	26.92	-0.03	-0.03
Cornell	Ivy	0.06	0.06	40.74	40.74	-0.01	-0.01
Dartmouth	Ivy	0.06	0.06	23.08	23.08	-0.03	-0.03
Drake	MVC	0.06	0.06	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Harvard	Ivy	0.06	0.06	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
Illinois St.	MVC	0.06	0.06	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Indiana St.	MVC	0.06	0.06	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Maryland	B10	0.06	0.06	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Mercer	SC	0.06	0.06	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Nebraska Omaha	Sum	0.06	0.06	24.14	24.14	-0.03	-0.03
North Texas	CUSA	0.06	0.06	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Princeton	Ivy	0.06	0.06	42.86	42.86	-0.01	-0.01
Seattle	WAC	0.06	0.06	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
South Dakota	Sum	0.06	0.06	73.33	73.33	0.03	0.03
UT Rio Grande Valley	WAC	0.06	0.06	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Valparaiso	MVC	0.06	0.06	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
VCU	A10	0.06	0.06	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
North Carolina	ACC	0.06	0.06	71.43	71.43	0.03	0.03
UT Arlington	SB	0.06	0.06	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Wisconsin	B10	0.06	0.06	45.45	45.45	-0.01	-0.01
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.06	0.06	26.67	26.67	-0.03	-0.03
Butler	BE	0.06	0.06	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Chattanooga	SC	0.06	0.06	25.81	25.81	-0.03	-0.03
Duke	ACC	0.06	0.06	78.79	78.79	0.03	0.03
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.06	0.06	24.24	24.24	-0.03	-0.03
Illinois	B10	0.06	0.06	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Jacksonville St.	OVC	0.06	0.06	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Liberty	BSth	0.06	0.06	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Marshall	CUSA	0.06	0.06	69.70	69.70	0.02	0.02
Minnesota	B10	0.06	0.06	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Niagara	MAAC	0.06	0.06	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.06	0.06	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
South Dakota St.	Sum	0.06	0.06	80.00	80.00	0.03	0.03
South Florida	Amer	0.06	0.06	31.25	31.25	-0.02	-0.02
Southern Miss	CUSA	0.06	0.06	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
St. John's	BE	0.06	0.06	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Tennessee St.	OVC	0.06	0.06	46.43	46.43	-0.00	-0.00
Western Carolina	SC	0.06	0.06	36.67	36.67	-0.02	-0.02
Wichita St.	Amer	0.06	0.06	78.12	78.12	0.03	0.03
Winthrop	BSth	0.06	0.06	57.14	57.14	0.01	0.01
Auburn	SEC	0.06	0.06	78.12	78.12	0.03	0.03
Mississippi	SEC	0.06	0.06	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
South Carolina	SEC	0.06	0.06	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	0.06	0.06	30.77	30.77	-0.02	-0.02
UCLA	P12	0.06	0.06	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Abilene Christian	Slnd	0.06	0.06	44.44	44.44	-0.01	-0.01
Akron	MAC	0.06	0.06	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Duquesne	A10	0.06	0.06	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Houston Baptist	Slnd	0.06	0.06	10.71	10.71	-0.04	-0.04
Kent St.	MAC	0.06	0.06	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Lamar	Slnd	0.06	0.06	53.57	53.57	0.00	0.00
Little Rock	SB	0.06	0.06	20.00	20.00	-0.03	-0.03
Morehead St.	OVC	0.06	0.06	22.22	22.22	-0.03	-0.03
Northwestern St.	Slnd	0.06	0.06	8.00	8.00	-0.05	-0.05
Utah St.	MWC	0.06	0.06	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Clemson	ACC	0.05	0.05	71.88	71.88	0.02	0.02
Oakland	Horz	0.05	0.05	57.58	57.58	0.01	0.01
Ohio St.	B10	0.05	0.05	75.00	75.00	0.03	0.03
Syracuse	ACC	0.05	0.05	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Washington St.	P12	0.05	0.05	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Wyoming	MWC	0.05	0.05	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Air Force	MWC	0.05	0.05	34.48	34.48	-0.02	-0.02
Canisius	MAAC	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Fresno St.	MWC	0.05	0.05	63.33	63.33	0.01	0.01
Oregon St.	P12	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Pacific	WCC	0.05	0.05	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Santa Clara	WCC	0.05	0.05	34.48	34.48	-0.02	-0.02
Texas St.	SB	0.05	0.05	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Troy	SB	0.05	0.05	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Weber St.	BSky	0.05	0.05	60.71	60.71	0.01	0.01
Albany	AE	0.03	0.03	67.74	67.74	0.01	0.01
Bryant	NEC	0.03	0.03	9.68	9.68	-0.02	-0.02
Chicago St.	WAC	0.03	0.03	3.33	3.33	-0.03	-0.03
Delaware	CAA	0.03	0.03	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Iona	MAAC	0.03	0.03	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.03	0.03	28.57	28.57	-0.01	-0.01
Lehigh	Pat	0.03	0.03	51.72	51.72	0.00	0.00
Monmouth	MAAC	0.03	0.03	35.48	35.48	-0.01	-0.01
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Vermont	AE	0.03	0.03	78.79	78.79	0.02	0.02
Appalachian St.	SB	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Boise St.	MWC	0.03	0.03	73.33	73.33	0.01	0.01
Colorado St.	MWC	0.03	0.03	32.26	32.26	-0.01	-0.01
Connecticut	Amer	0.03	0.03	43.75	43.75	-0.00	-0.00
Florida St.	ACC	0.03	0.03	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
Fordham	A10	0.03	0.03	29.03	29.03	-0.01	-0.01
LIU Brooklyn	NEC	0.03	0.03	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
Miami OH	MAC	0.03	0.03	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Milwaukee	Horz	0.03	0.03	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Nebraska	B10	0.03	0.03	68.75	68.75	0.01	0.01
North Florida	ASun	0.03	0.03	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Northern Illinois	MAC	0.03	0.03	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Northwestern	B10	0.03	0.03	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Notre Dame	ACC	0.03	0.03	57.58	57.58	0.00	0.00
SIU Edwardsville	OVC	0.03	0.03	30.00	30.00	-0.01	-0.01
South Alabama	SB	0.03	0.03	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
UNC Wilmington	CAA	0.03	0.03	30.00	30.00	-0.01	-0.01
USC Upstate	ASun	0.03	0.03	10.71	10.71	-0.02	-0.02
Western Illinois	Sum	0.03	0.03	33.33	33.33	-0.01	-0.01
Arizona St.	P12	0.03	0.03	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
Belmont	OVC	0.03	0.03	72.73	72.73	0.01	0.01
California	P12	0.03	0.03	25.81	25.81	-0.01	-0.01
Incarnate Word	Slnd	0.03	0.03	12.50	12.50	-0.02	-0.02
McNeese St.	Slnd	0.03	0.03	32.00	32.00	-0.01	-0.01
Middle Tennessee	CUSA	0.03	0.03	76.67	76.67	0.01	0.01
New Orleans	Slnd	0.03	0.03	42.86	42.86	-0.00	-0.00
Radford	BSth	0.03	0.03	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
San Francisco	WCC	0.03	0.03	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
UNC Asheville	BSth	0.03	0.03	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
USC	P12	0.03	0.03	67.65	67.65	0.01	0.01
Virginia	ACC	0.03	0.03	93.94	93.94	0.02	0.02